The Bull Market - By the Numbers

Steven Higgins Financial Advisor, CFP |

As the bull market enters its fourth year, we take a look at where this cycle measures up against other modern bull markets dating back to 1957.  While all bull markets have been fraught with volatility, fear, economic angst, and political uncertainty, many prognosticators are quick to declare their predictions of what’s ahead.  I am going to refrain from throwing my hat in the ring with my own guess.  Instead, to enforce a healthy relationship with the probabilities of potential outcomes, I’ll simply compare the stats of the eleven cycles we’ve experienced since 1957.  You decide, are we due?  Is there room to run?  

 

Remember: Optimism doesn’t mean we always wear rose-colored glasses.  It means we have a bias towards positive outcomes.  

Investments and financial planning are individualized pursuits.  If you have specific questions about how to apply this or any other data to your own financial plan or goals, please feel free to reach out.

 

Hypothetical growth of $100,000

 

Bull Markets and Corrections (1957–Present)

1957–1961 Bull Market

Duration: October 1957 – December 1961

Corrections:

  • - 1959: ~10% correction
  • - 1960: ~10% correction

1962–1966 Bull Market

Duration: June 1962 – February 1966

Corrections:

  • - 1963: ~11% correction
  • - 1965: ~10% correction

1966–1968 Bull Market

Duration: October 1966 – November 1968

Corrections:

  • - 1967: ~11% correction

1970–1973 Bull Market

Duration: May 1970 – January 1973

Corrections:

  • - 1971: ~10% correction
  • - 1972: ~10% correction

1974–1980 Bull Market

Duration: October 1974 – November 1980

Corrections:

  • - 1976: ~10% correction
  • - 1978: ~14% correction
  • - 1979: ~10% correction

1982–1987 Bull Market

Duration: August 1982 – August 1987

Corrections:

  • - 1983: ~14% correction
  • - 1984: ~14% correction
  • - 1986: ~10% correction

1987–2000 Bull Market

Duration: December 1987 – March 2000

Corrections:

  • - 1990: ~19% correction (most significant of this period)
  • - 1994: ~10% correction
  • - 1998: ~19% correction

2002–2007 Bull Market

Duration: October 2002 – October 2007

Corrections:

  • - 2004: ~10% correction
  • - 2006: ~10% correction

2009–2020 Bull Market

Duration: March 2009 – February 2020

Corrections:

  • - 2010: ~16% correction
  • - 2011: ~19% correction
  • - 2015: ~12% correction
  • - 2018: ~20% correction (sometimes viewed as a brief bear market)

2020–2022 Bull Market

Duration: March 2020 – January 2022

Corrections:

  • - 2020: ~10% correction shortly after the COVID-19 recovery
  • - 2022: Several ~10% corrections within a broader bear market

2022–Present Bull Market

Duration: October 2022 – Present

Corrections:

  • - March–April: ~19% correction driven by uncertainty surrounding tariffs and global trade policies

Summary of Corrections

  • Total Corrections: 31 corrections of 10% or more across bull markets since 1957

  • Average per Bull Market: Approximately 3–4 corrections per cycle

    Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

    This is a hypothetical example and is not representative of any specific situation. Your results will vary. The hypothetical rates of return used do not reflect the deduction of fees and charges inherent to investing.